Energie Cottbus U19 1–1 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Energie Cottbus U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

C. Tanriver 80'

M. Kolenda 89'

11/26/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 12Stadion an der Lipezker Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Energie Cottbus U1936%

×Draw22%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Energie Cottbus U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.88

Energie Cottbus U19

1.72

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

2.09

1.66

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.80

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

Energie Cottbus U19

1.66

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Energie Cottbus U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energie Cottbus U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Energie Cottbus U19 or draw

58%

Energie Cottbus U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

78%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

64%

Winning margin

Energie Cottbus U19 wins by 2+

18%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Energie Cottbus U19 1+ goals

82%

Energie Cottbus U19 2+ goals

51%

Energie Cottbus U19 3+ goals

25%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

85%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

56%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Energie Cottbus U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energie Cottbus U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energie Cottbus U19 attack 1.80 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.72

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + Energie Cottbus U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Energie Cottbus U19 scores more

36%

level

22%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

42%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

P. Behrend← T. Koczulap

60'

T. Bektaş← E. Bröse

72'

Y. El Haddoudi← T. Michalski

72'

A. Millgramm← A. Soliman

80'

C. Tanriver

88'

J. Hartl← G. Didoss

89'

F. Heidrich← D. Silic

89'

M. Kolenda

Energie

Hertha

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Adelmann

60'▲T. Bektaş←▼E. Bröse

72'▲Y. El Haddoudi←▼T. Michalski

89'▲F. Heidrich←▼D. Silic

Energie Cottbus U19 substitutes

BektaşHaddoudiHeidrichBoukaraRebensburgKurekKummer

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲P. Behrend←▼T. Koczulap

72'▲A. Millgramm←▼A. Soliman

88'▲J. Hartl←▼G. Didoss

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

BehrendMillgrammHartlTrojahnKarikaZdepGörlitz