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Energetik vs Altyn Asyr — Ýokary Liga 2020

Energetik
Energetik
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
10/30/2023Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 19Energetik stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Energetik15%
×Draw20%
Altyn Asyr65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Energetik
0.86
Altyn Asyr
2.04

Altyn Asyr creates 137% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 83 away

creates per match

Energetik
0.80
Altyn Asyr
1.80

allows per match

Energetik
2.29
Altyn Asyr
0.92

finishing

Energetik+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Energetik ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Energetik or draw
35%
Energetik or Altyn Asyr
80%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
85%

Winning margin

Energetik wins by 2+
5%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Energetik 1+ goals
58%
Energetik 2+ goals
21%
Energetik 3+ goals
6%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
87%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
60%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Energetik (draw refunded)
19%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Energetik at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.29 · 55 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Energetik attack 0.80 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Altyn Asyr attack 1.80 + Energetik defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Energetik scores more
15%
level
20%
Altyn Asyr scores more
65%

Altyn Asyr at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Energetik vs Altyn Asyr

Altyn Asyr beat Energetik 2-1 in Ýokary Liga on October 30, 2023.

The match was played at Energetik stadiony in Mary.