Encarnación vs Rubio NU — Division Intermedia 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Encarnación41%
Rubio NU31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Encarnación creates 21% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 105 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Encarnación ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Encarnación at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches
Rubio NU away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Encarnación attack 1.32 + Rubio NU defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26
Rubio NU attack 1.10 + Encarnación defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Encarnación at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Encarnación will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Deportivo Santani
12 de Junio VH
Tacuary
Atlético Tembetary
Benjamín Aceval
Fernando De La Mora
Sportivo Carapeguá
SOL DE America
Paraguari ACEncarnación
General Caballero
Guairena FC
Independiente F.b.c.
Deportivo Capiata
Resistencia
3 de NoviembreIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Encarnación host Rubio NU on Monday, 23 September 2024 at 21:00. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2026/2027 season.
Division Intermedia: Encarnación 0–0 Rubio NU
Encarnación and Rubio NU drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on September 23, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.