Encarnación 1–0 Pastoreo: Result & Stats

Encarnación

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pastoreo

F. Garcete 90+2'

8/14/2025

Division Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Encarnación41%

×Draw28%

Pastoreo32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EncarnaciónExpected goals in this matchPastoreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Encarnación

1.29

Pastoreo

1.11

Encarnación creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 60 away

1.31

creates per match

1.25

0.97

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Encarnación

1.31

Pastoreo

1.25

allows per match

Encarnación

0.97

Pastoreo

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Encarnación+0.00on par

Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Encarnación ↓

Pastoreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Encarnación or draw

68%

Encarnación or Pastoreo

72%

Draw or Pastoreo

59%

Winning margin

Encarnación wins by 2+

18%

Pastoreo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Encarnación 1+ goals

72%

Encarnación 2+ goals

37%

Encarnación 3+ goals

14%

Pastoreo 1+ goals

67%

Pastoreo 2+ goals

30%

Pastoreo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Encarnación (draw refunded)

56%

Pastoreo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Encarnación at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Encarnación attack 1.31 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + Encarnación defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Encarnación scores more

41%

level

28%

Pastoreo scores more

32%

Encarnación at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Encarnación will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'

F. Garcete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff