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Encarnación vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Encarnación
Encarnación
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
8/5/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Encarnación46%
×Draw28%
Martin Ledesma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Encarnación
1.33
Martin Ledesma
0.92

Encarnación creates 45% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 61 away

creates per match

Encarnación
1.31
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Encarnación
0.97
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Encarnación+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Encarnación ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Encarnación or draw
74%
Encarnación or Martin Ledesma
72%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
54%

Winning margin

Encarnación wins by 2+
22%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Encarnación 1+ goals
74%
Encarnación 2+ goals
38%
Encarnación 3+ goals
15%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
60%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
23%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Encarnación (draw refunded)
64%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Encarnación at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Encarnación attack 1.31 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Encarnación defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Encarnación scores more
46%
level
28%
Martin Ledesma scores more
26%

Encarnación at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Encarnación will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Encarnación 0–0 Martin Ledesma

Encarnación and Martin Ledesma drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.