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Encarnación vs Deportivo Capiata — Division Intermedia 2026

Encarnación
Encarnación
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
M. Davalos 51'
A. Acuna Garcia 18'
H. Lezcano 6'
9/5/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Encarnación41%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Capiata29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Encarnación
1.18
Deportivo Capiata
0.94

Encarnación creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 39 away

creates per match

Encarnación
1.32
Deportivo Capiata
0.90

allows per match

Encarnación
0.97
Deportivo Capiata
1.03

finishing

Encarnación+0.00on par
Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Encarnación ↓

Deportivo Capiata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Encarnación or draw
71%
Encarnación or Deportivo Capiata
70%
Draw or Deportivo Capiata
59%

Winning margin

Encarnación wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Encarnación 1+ goals
69%
Encarnación 2+ goals
33%
Encarnación 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Encarnación (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Encarnación at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Encarnación attack 1.32 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.90 + Encarnación defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Encarnación scores more
41%
level
30%
Deportivo Capiata scores more
29%

Encarnación at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Encarnación will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. Lezcano
18'
A. Acuna Garcia
51'
M. Davalos
63'
F. Garcete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Encarnación 1–2 Deportivo Capiata

Deportivo Capiata beat Encarnación 2-1 in Division Intermedia on September 5, 2025.

Goals: H. Lezcano (6'), A. Acuna Garcia (18'), M. Davalos (51').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.