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Encarnación vs Club River Plate — Division Intermedia 2018

Encarnación
Encarnación
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
L. F. Escobar 57'
D. Arnaldo 63'
8/22/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 24Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Encarnación42%
×Draw28%
Club River Plate30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Encarnación
1.27
Club River Plate
1.02

Encarnación creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

creates per match

Encarnación
1.31
Club River Plate
1.07

allows per match

Encarnación
0.97
Club River Plate
1.22

finishing

Encarnación+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Encarnación ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Encarnación or draw
70%
Encarnación or Club River Plate
72%
Draw or Club River Plate
58%

Winning margin

Encarnación wins by 2+
19%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Encarnación 1+ goals
72%
Encarnación 2+ goals
36%
Encarnación 3+ goals
14%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
64%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
27%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Encarnación (draw refunded)
59%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Encarnación at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Encarnación attack 1.31 + Club River Plate defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Club River Plate attack 1.07 + Encarnación defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Encarnación scores more
42%
level
28%
Club River Plate scores more
30%

Encarnación at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Encarnación will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
L. F. Escobar
63'
D. Arnaldo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Encarnación vs Club River Plate

Encarnación and Club River Plate drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on August 22, 2025.

Goals: L. F. Escobar (57'), D. Arnaldo (63').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.