Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Encarnación vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

Encarnación
Encarnación
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
7/12/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Encarnación54%
×Draw24%
Atlético Colegiales22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Encarnación
1.68
Atlético Colegiales
0.97

Encarnación creates 73% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 44 away

creates per match

Encarnación
1.31
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

Encarnación
0.97
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

Encarnación+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Encarnación ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Encarnación or draw
78%
Encarnación or Atlético Colegiales
76%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
46%

Winning margin

Encarnación wins by 2+
29%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Encarnación 1+ goals
81%
Encarnación 2+ goals
50%
Encarnación 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Encarnación (draw refunded)
71%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Encarnación at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Encarnación attack 1.31 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.68

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Encarnación defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Encarnación scores more
54%
level
24%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
22%

Encarnación at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Encarnación will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Encarnación vs Atlético Colegiales

Encarnación beat Atlético Colegiales 5-1 in Division Intermedia on July 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.