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Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
11/28/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 9Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Empoli51%
×Draw25%
Vicenza Virtus24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.63
Vicenza Virtus
1.03

Empoli creates 58% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 44 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.61
Vicenza Virtus
1.02

allows per match

Empoli
1.04
Vicenza Virtus
1.64

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Vicenza Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
76%
Empoli or Vicenza Virtus
75%
Draw or Vicenza Virtus
49%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
27%
Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
80%
Empoli 2+ goals
48%
Empoli 3+ goals
22%
Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
64%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
28%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
68%
Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.61 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Empoli defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Empoli scores more
51%
level
25%
Vicenza Virtus scores more
24%

Empoli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus

Empoli and Vicenza Virtus drew 2-2 in Serie B on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.