Empoli 1–1 Trapani: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Trapani

3/7/2020

Serie B · Round 28Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Empoli55%

×Draw23%

Trapani22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchTrapani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.08

Empoli

1.86

Trapani

1.08

Empoli creates 72% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

1.11

1.04

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Empoli

1.61

Trapani

1.11

allows per match

Empoli

1.04

Trapani

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Trapani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Trapani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

78%

Empoli or Trapani

77%

Draw or Trapani

45%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

32%

Trapani wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

84%

Empoli 2+ goals

55%

Empoli 3+ goals

28%

Trapani 1+ goals

66%

Trapani 2+ goals

29%

Trapani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

72%

Trapani (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Trapani away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.61 + Trapani defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.86

Trapani attack 1.11 + Empoli defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Empoli scores more

55%

level

23%

Trapani scores more

22%

Empoli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff