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Empoli vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Empoli
Empoli
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Diego Farias 60'
A. Acquah 37'
R. Krunić 34'
2/17/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 24Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Empoli38%
×Draw24%
Sassuolo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.50
Sassuolo
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 129 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.34
Sassuolo
1.35

allows per match

Empoli
1.65
Sassuolo
1.67

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
62%
Empoli or Sassuolo
76%
Draw or Sassuolo
62%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
18%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
78%
Empoli 2+ goals
44%
Empoli 3+ goals
19%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
78%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
44%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
50%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.34 + Sassuolo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sassuolo attack 1.35 + Empoli defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Empoli scores more
38%
level
24%
Sassuolo scores more
38%

Empoli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. BennacerEmpoliEmpoli · M
8.1

Match Events

34'
R. Krunić↳ I. Bennacer
37'
A. Acquah↳ Diego Farias
46'
D. Berardi← E. Brignola
46'
M. Bourabia← A. Duncan
57'
Stefano Sensi
60'
Diego Farias↳ I. Bennacer
65'
Domenico Berardi
68'
A. La Gumina← Diego Farias
71'
Manuel Pasqual
76'
A. Matri← K. Babacar
78'
M. Brighi← A. Acquah
84'
Mehdi Bourabia
88'
S. Uçan← R. Krunić

Possession

33%Empoli

Shots

7Empoli

Pass accuracy

47%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliSassuolo
Overview
33%Possession67%
7Total Shots8
3Corners3
12Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots8
5On Target2
1Off Target4
1Blocked2
7Inside Box4
0Outside Box4
Passing
33%Possession67%
326Total Passes675
253Accurate Passes601
78%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Serie A: Empoli 3–0 Sassuolo

Empoli beat Sassuolo 3-0 in Serie A on February 17, 2019.

Goals: R. Krunić (34'), A. Acquah (37'), Diego Farias (60').

Sassuolo controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Carlo Castellani in Empoli.