Empoli 1–0 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie A

Empoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sampdoria

1/16/2023

Serie A · Round 18Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Empoli43%

×Draw24%

Sampdoria33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.40

Empoli

1.64

Sampdoria

1.40

Empoli creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 94 away

1.46

creates per match

1.10

1.70

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Empoli

1.46

Sampdoria

1.10

allows per match

Empoli

1.70

Sampdoria

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

67%

Empoli or Sampdoria

76%

Draw or Sampdoria

57%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

22%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

81%

Empoli 2+ goals

49%

Empoli 3+ goals

23%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

75%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

41%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

57%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.70 · 57 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.81 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.46 + Sampdoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sampdoria attack 1.10 + Empoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Empoli scores more

43%

level

24%

Sampdoria scores more

33%

Empoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff