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Empoli vs Nuova Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
7/27/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 37Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Empoli52%
×Draw25%
Nuova Cosenza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.58
Nuova Cosenza
0.97

Empoli creates 63% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 134 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.61
Nuova Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Empoli
1.04
Nuova Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Nuova Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
77%
Empoli or Nuova Cosenza
75%
Draw or Nuova Cosenza
48%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
27%
Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
79%
Empoli 2+ goals
47%
Empoli 3+ goals
21%
Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
62%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
25%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
69%
Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.61 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Empoli defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Empoli scores more
52%
level
25%
Nuova Cosenza scores more
23%

Empoli at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Empoli 1–5 Nuova Cosenza

Nuova Cosenza beat Empoli 5-1 in Serie B on July 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.