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Empoli vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Empoli
Empoli
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Inter
Inter
Lautaro Martínez 88'
R. Lukaku 76', 48'
4/23/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 31Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Empoli26%
×Draw24%
Inter51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.19
Inter
1.76

Inter creates 48% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 137 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.35
Inter
1.90

allows per match

Empoli
1.62
Inter
1.03

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
49%
Empoli or Inter
76%
Draw or Inter
74%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
10%
Inter wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
70%
Empoli 2+ goals
33%
Empoli 3+ goals
12%
Inter 1+ goals
83%
Inter 2+ goals
52%
Inter 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
34%
Inter (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.62 · 66 matches

Inter away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.03 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.35 + Inter defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Inter attack 1.90 + Empoli defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Empoli scores more
26%
level
24%
Inter scores more
51%

Inter at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90
R. LukakuInterInter · F
9.2

Match Events

32'
Fabiano Parisi
48'
R. Lukaku↳ M. Brozović
65'
A. Grassi← N. Haas
65'
M. Satriano← N. Cambiaghi
69'
Lautaro Martínez← J. Correa
69'
D. Dumfries← R. Bellanova
71'
L. Tonelli← S. Luperto
72'
E. Vignato← F. Bandinelli
76'
R. Lukaku↳ H. Çalhanoğlu
77'
N. Barella← M. Brozović
77'
F. Dimarco← R. Gosens
80'
M. Destro← F. Caputo
81'
Nicolò Barella
87'
K. Asllani← H. Çalhanoğlu
88'
Lautaro Martínez↳ R. Lukaku

Possession

39%Empoli

Shots

11Empoli

Pass accuracy

49%Empoli

Statistics

EmpoliInter
Overview
39%Possession61%
11Total Shots16
0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.08
5Corners4
6Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots16
3On Target4
4Off Target9
4Blocked3
7Inside Box10
4Outside Box6
Passing
39%Possession61%
380Total Passes604
324Accurate Passes544
85%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Empoli 0 – 3 Inter

Inter beat Empoli 3-0 in Serie A on April 23, 2023.

Goals: R. Lukaku (48', 76'), Lautaro Martínez (88').

Inter controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.