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Empoli vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Empoli
Empoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
8/31/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 4Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Empoli41%
×Draw25%
Hellas Verona34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli
1.52
Hellas Verona
1.36

Empoli creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

Empoli
1.46
Hellas Verona
1.02

allows per match

Empoli
1.70
Hellas Verona
1.57

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Empoli or draw
66%
Empoli or Hellas Verona
75%
Draw or Hellas Verona
59%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+
20%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals
78%
Empoli 2+ goals
45%
Empoli 3+ goals
20%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
74%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
39%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)
55%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.70 · 57 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.46 + Hellas Verona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hellas Verona attack 1.02 + Empoli defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Empoli scores more
41%
level
25%
Hellas Verona scores more
34%

Empoli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Empoli 1–1 Hellas Verona

Empoli and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in Serie A on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.