Empoli 1–0 Cittadella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cittadella

9/21/2019

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Empoli47%

×Draw27%

Cittadella26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchCittadella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.98

Empoli

1.40

Cittadella

0.98

Empoli creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 134 away

1.61

creates per match

0.92

1.04

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Empoli

1.61

Cittadella

0.92

allows per match

Empoli

1.04

Cittadella

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Cittadella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

74%

Empoli or Cittadella

73%

Draw or Cittadella

53%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

22%

Cittadella wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

75%

Empoli 2+ goals

41%

Empoli 3+ goals

17%

Cittadella 1+ goals

62%

Cittadella 2+ goals

26%

Cittadella 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

64%

Cittadella (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.61 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Empoli defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Empoli scores more

47%

level

27%

Cittadella scores more

26%

Empoli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff