Empoli 4–2 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Brescia

Ryder Matos 83'

L. Štulac 45'

N. Bajrami 17'

J. Joronen 10' (OG)

A. Donnarumma 72'

B. Bjarnason 27'

4/17/2021

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Empoli46%

×Draw26%

Brescia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

Empoli

1.45

Brescia

1.07

Empoli creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 116 away

1.61

creates per match

1.16

0.98

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Empoli

1.61

Brescia

1.16

allows per match

Empoli

0.98

Brescia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

72%

Empoli or Brescia

74%

Draw or Brescia

54%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

22%

Brescia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

77%

Empoli 2+ goals

42%

Empoli 3+ goals

18%

Brescia 1+ goals

66%

Brescia 2+ goals

29%

Brescia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

62%

Brescia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.61 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Brescia attack 1.16 + Empoli defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Empoli scores more

46%

level

26%

Brescia scores more

28%

Empoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Štulac

Empoli · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

J. JoronenOwn goal

17'

N. Bajrami↳ N. Haas

27'

B. Bjarnason↳ J. Łabojko

45'

L. Štulac↳ A. La Mantia

54'

Emanuele Ndoj

56'

A. Ragusa← J. Łabojko

56'

A. Donnarumma← E. Ndoj

63'

Ryder Matos← A. La Mantia

63'

F. Bandinelli← L. Štulac

66'

D. Bisoli← F. Jagiełło

67'

B. Martella← M. Pajač

70'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

72'

A. Donnarumma

78'

S. Ricci← S. Żurkowski

78'

S. Moreo← L. Mancuso

83'

Ryder Matos

84'

H. Friðjónsson← B. Bjarnason

90+1'

A. Cambiaso← S. Sabelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliBrescia

Overview

50%Possession50%

25Total Shots9

8Corners4

12Fouls17

Shots

25Total Shots9

11On Target3

9Off Target2

5Blocked4

13Inside Box6

12Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

409Total Passes400

306Accurate Passes305

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides5