Empoli U20 2–1 Udinese U20: Result & Stats

Empoli U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Udinese U20

11/24/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 12Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Empoli U2065%

×Draw20%

Udinese U2015%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Empoli U20Expected goals in this matchUdinese U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.90

Empoli U20

2.13

Udinese U20

0.90

Empoli U20 creates 137% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

0.68

1.11

allows per match

3.26

creates per match

Empoli U20

1.00

Udinese U20

0.68

allows per match

Empoli U20

1.11

Udinese U20

3.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli U20+0.00on par

Udinese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U20 ↓

Udinese U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Empoli U20 or draw

85%

Empoli U20 or Udinese U20

80%

Draw or Udinese U20

35%

Winning margin

Empoli U20 wins by 2+

41%

Udinese U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Empoli U20 1+ goals

88%

Empoli U20 2+ goals

63%

Empoli U20 3+ goals

35%

Udinese U20 1+ goals

59%

Udinese U20 2+ goals

23%

Udinese U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Empoli U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Udinese U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Udinese U20 away — creates 0.68, concedes 3.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U20 attack 1.00 + Udinese U20 defence 3.26 → ÷2 → 2.13

Udinese U20 attack 0.68 + Empoli U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Empoli U20 scores more

65%

level

20%

Udinese U20 scores more

15%

Empoli U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Empoli U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff