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Empoli U20 vs Torino U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Empoli U20
Empoli U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Torino U20
Torino U20
10/4/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Empoli U2040%
×Draw27%
Torino U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U20
1.34
Torino U20
1.18

Empoli U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Empoli U20
1.00
Torino U20
1.24

allows per match

Empoli U20
1.11
Torino U20
1.68

finishing

Empoli U20+0.00on par
Torino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U20 ↓

Torino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Empoli U20 or draw
67%
Empoli U20 or Torino U20
73%
Draw or Torino U20
60%

Winning margin

Empoli U20 wins by 2+
19%
Torino U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Empoli U20 1+ goals
74%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
39%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
15%
Torino U20 1+ goals
69%
Torino U20 2+ goals
33%
Torino U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Torino U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Torino U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U20 attack 1.00 + Torino U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Torino U20 attack 1.24 + Empoli U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Empoli U20 scores more
40%
level
27%
Torino U20 scores more
33%

Empoli U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Empoli U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Empoli U20 vs Torino U20

Torino U20 beat Empoli U20 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Petroio in Vinci.