Empoli U20 vs Internazionale U20

Empoli U20

Preview

09:00

Internazionale U20

5/15/2027

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 37

41%

Internazionale U20

model favours

32%27%41%

Empoli U20 raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Empoli U2032%

×Draw27%

Internazionale U2041%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Empoli U20Expected goals in this matchInternazionale U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.33

Empoli U20

1.15

Internazionale U20

1.33

Internazionale U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 40 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

1.11

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Empoli U20

1.00

Internazionale U20

1.55

allows per match

Empoli U20

1.11

Internazionale U20

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli U20+0.00on par

Internazionale U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U20 ↓

Internazionale U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Empoli U20 or draw

59%

Empoli U20 or Internazionale U20

73%

Draw or Internazionale U20

68%

Winning margin

Empoli U20 wins by 2+

13%

Internazionale U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Empoli U20 1+ goals

68%

Empoli U20 2+ goals

32%

Empoli U20 3+ goals

11%

Internazionale U20 1+ goals

74%

Internazionale U20 2+ goals

38%

Internazionale U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Empoli U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Internazionale U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Internazionale U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U20 attack 1.00 + Internazionale U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Internazionale U20 attack 1.55 + Empoli U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Empoli U20 scores more

32%

level

27%

Internazionale U20 scores more

41%

Internazionale U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internazionale U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U20

LWLDL

U20

LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff