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Empoli U20 vs Cagliari U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Empoli U20
Empoli U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
3/2/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 28Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Empoli U2041%
×Draw27%
Cagliari U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U20
1.34
Cagliari U20
1.13

Empoli U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 39 away

creates per match

Empoli U20
1.00
Cagliari U20
1.15

allows per match

Empoli U20
1.11
Cagliari U20
1.69

finishing

Empoli U20+0.00on par
Cagliari U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U20 ↓

Cagliari U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Empoli U20 or draw
69%
Empoli U20 or Cagliari U20
73%
Draw or Cagliari U20
59%

Winning margin

Empoli U20 wins by 2+
19%
Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Empoli U20 1+ goals
74%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
39%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
15%
Cagliari U20 1+ goals
68%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
31%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Cagliari U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U20 attack 1.00 + Cagliari U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cagliari U20 attack 1.15 + Empoli U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Empoli U20 scores more
41%
level
27%
Cagliari U20 scores more
31%

Empoli U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Empoli U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Empoli U20 vs Cagliari U20

Cagliari U20 beat Empoli U20 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Petroio in Vinci.