Empoli U19 2–1 Verona U19: Result & Stats

Empoli U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Verona U19

2/13/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 18Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Empoli U1948%

×Draw24%

Verona U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Empoli U19Expected goals in this matchVerona U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Empoli U19

1.69

Verona U19

1.23

Empoli U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

1.68

creates per match

1.31

1.14

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Empoli U19

1.68

Verona U19

1.31

allows per match

Empoli U19

1.14

Verona U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par

Verona U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Verona U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw

72%

Empoli U19 or Verona U19

76%

Draw or Verona U19

52%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+

26%

Verona U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals

82%

Empoli U19 2+ goals

50%

Empoli U19 3+ goals

24%

Verona U19 1+ goals

71%

Verona U19 2+ goals

35%

Verona U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Verona U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Verona U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 1.68 + Verona U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Verona U19 attack 1.31 + Empoli U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Empoli U19 scores more

48%

level

24%

Verona U19 scores more

28%

Empoli U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff