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Empoli U19 vs Udinese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Empoli U19
Empoli U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udinese U19
Udinese U19
3/6/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 22Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Empoli U1962%
×Draw22%
Udinese U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U19
1.87
Udinese U19
0.83

Empoli U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

creates per match

Empoli U19
1.68
Udinese U19
0.53

allows per match

Empoli U19
1.14
Udinese U19
2.06

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par
Udinese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Udinese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw
84%
Empoli U19 or Udinese U19
78%
Draw or Udinese U19
38%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+
37%
Udinese U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals
85%
Empoli U19 2+ goals
56%
Empoli U19 3+ goals
29%
Udinese U19 1+ goals
56%
Udinese U19 2+ goals
20%
Udinese U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Udinese U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Udinese U19 away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 1.68 + Udinese U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.87

Udinese U19 attack 0.53 + Empoli U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Empoli U19 scores more
62%
level
22%
Udinese U19 scores more
16%

Empoli U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Empoli U19 1–0 Udinese U19

Empoli U19 beat Udinese U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on March 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Petroio in Vinci.