Empoli U19 2–2 Roma U19: Result & Stats

Empoli U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Roma U19

10/3/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 6Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Empoli U1938%

×Draw24%

Roma U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Empoli U19Expected goals in this matchRoma U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.53

Empoli U19

1.55

Roma U19

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

1.68

creates per match

1.93

1.14

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Empoli U19

1.68

Roma U19

1.93

allows per match

Empoli U19

1.14

Roma U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par

Roma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Roma U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw

62%

Empoli U19 or Roma U19

76%

Draw or Roma U19

62%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+

19%

Roma U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals

79%

Empoli U19 2+ goals

46%

Empoli U19 3+ goals

20%

Roma U19 1+ goals

78%

Roma U19 2+ goals

45%

Roma U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Roma U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Roma U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 1.68 + Roma U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Roma U19 attack 1.93 + Empoli U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Empoli U19 scores more

38%

level

24%

Roma U19 scores more

38%

Empoli U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff