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Empoli U19 vs Lecce U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Empoli U19
Empoli U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lecce U19
Lecce U19
10/15/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 8Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Empoli U1945%
×Draw25%
Lecce U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U19
1.57
Lecce U19
1.25

Empoli U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

creates per match

Empoli U19
1.68
Lecce U19
1.37

allows per match

Empoli U19
1.14
Lecce U19
1.47

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par
Lecce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Lecce U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw
70%
Empoli U19 or Lecce U19
75%
Draw or Lecce U19
55%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+
23%
Lecce U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals
79%
Empoli U19 2+ goals
46%
Empoli U19 3+ goals
21%
Lecce U19 1+ goals
71%
Lecce U19 2+ goals
36%
Lecce U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Lecce U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Lecce U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 1.68 + Lecce U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lecce U19 attack 1.37 + Empoli U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Empoli U19 scores more
45%
level
25%
Lecce U19 scores more
30%

Empoli U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Empoli U19 vs Lecce U19

Empoli U19 and Lecce U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Petroio in Vinci.