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Empoli U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Empoli U19
Empoli U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Crvena Zvezda U19
Crvena Zvezda U19
11/23/2021UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Empoli U1961%
×Draw17%
Crvena Zvezda U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U19
2.88
Crvena Zvezda U19
1.69

Empoli U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Empoli U19
3.00
Crvena Zvezda U19
1.38

allows per match

Empoli U19
2.00
Crvena Zvezda U19
2.77

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw
79%
Empoli U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19
83%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19
39%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+
42%
Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals
94%
Empoli U19 2+ goals
78%
Empoli U19 3+ goals
54%
Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals
82%
Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals
50%
Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 3.00 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.88

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + Empoli U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Empoli U19 scores more
61%
level
17%
Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more
21%

Empoli U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Empoli U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U19

Empoli U19 beat Crvena Zvezda U19 5-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli.