Empoli U19 3–5 Borussia Dortmund U19

Empoli U19

FT

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Borussia Dortmund U19

2/8/2022

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsStadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Empoli U1950%

×Draw20%

Borussia Dortmund U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Empoli U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.87

Empoli U19

2.42

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.87

Empoli U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

3.00

creates per match

1.74

2.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Empoli U19

3.00

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.74

allows per match

Empoli U19

2.00

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw

70%

Empoli U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

80%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

50%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+

31%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals

91%

Empoli U19 2+ goals

69%

Empoli U19 3+ goals

43%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

85%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

56%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 3.00 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.74 + Empoli U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Empoli U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

30%

Empoli U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff