Empoli U19 1–1 Atalanta U19: Result & Stats

Empoli U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atalanta U19

9/23/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4Stadio Comunale di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Empoli U1942%

×Draw24%

Atalanta U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Empoli U19Expected goals in this matchAtalanta U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.40

Empoli U19

1.58

Atalanta U19

1.40

Empoli U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

1.68

creates per match

1.66

1.14

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Empoli U19

1.68

Atalanta U19

1.66

allows per match

Empoli U19

1.14

Atalanta U19

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Atalanta U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw

66%

Empoli U19 or Atalanta U19

76%

Draw or Atalanta U19

58%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+

21%

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals

79%

Empoli U19 2+ goals

47%

Empoli U19 3+ goals

21%

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

75%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

41%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Atalanta U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 1.68 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atalanta U19 attack 1.66 + Empoli U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Empoli U19 scores more

42%

level

24%

Atalanta U19 scores more

34%

Empoli U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff