Empire Club 2–0 Brittons Hill: Result & Stats

Empire Club

FT

2 – 0

Brittons Hill

6/7/2023

Premier League · Round 8Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Empire Club32%

×Draw20%

Brittons Hill48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Empire ClubExpected goals in this matchBrittons Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.31

Empire Club

1.88

Brittons Hill

2.31

Brittons Hill creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

2.00

creates per match

2.02

2.61

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Empire Club

2.00

Brittons Hill

2.02

allows per match

Empire Club

2.61

Brittons Hill

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Empire Club+0.00on par

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empire Club ↓

Brittons Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Empire Club or draw

52%

Empire Club or Brittons Hill

80%

Draw or Brittons Hill

68%

Winning margin

Empire Club wins by 2+

16%

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Empire Club 1+ goals

85%

Empire Club 2+ goals

56%

Empire Club 3+ goals

29%

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

90%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

67%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Empire Club (draw refunded)

40%

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empire Club at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.61 · 23 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empire Club attack 2.00 + Brittons Hill defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Brittons Hill attack 2.02 + Empire Club defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Empire Club scores more

32%

level

20%

Brittons Hill scores more

48%

Brittons Hill at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff