Emmenbrücke 3–3 Thun II: Result & Stats

Emmenbrücke

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Thun II

10/8/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Gersag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Emmenbrücke38%

×Draw22%

Thun II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenbrückeExpected goals in this matchThun II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.86

Emmenbrücke

1.79

Thun II

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.53

creates per match

1.33

2.40

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Emmenbrücke

1.53

Thun II

1.33

allows per match

Emmenbrücke

2.40

Thun II

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmenbrücke+0.00on par

Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmenbrücke ↓

Thun II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Emmenbrücke or draw

60%

Emmenbrücke or Thun II

78%

Draw or Thun II

62%

Winning margin

Emmenbrücke wins by 2+

19%

Thun II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Emmenbrücke 1+ goals

83%

Emmenbrücke 2+ goals

53%

Emmenbrücke 3+ goals

26%

Thun II 1+ goals

84%

Thun II 2+ goals

55%

Thun II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Emmenbrücke (draw refunded)

48%

Thun II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmenbrücke at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmenbrücke attack 1.53 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Thun II attack 1.33 + Emmenbrücke defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Emmenbrücke scores more

38%

level

22%

Thun II scores more

40%

Thun II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff