Emmenbrücke 1–2 Schötz: Result & Stats

Emmenbrücke

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Schötz

9/17/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Gersag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Emmenbrücke33%

×Draw22%

Schötz46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenbrückeExpected goals in this matchSchötz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.01

Emmenbrücke

1.68

Schötz

2.01

Schötz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

1.53

creates per match

1.62

2.40

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Emmenbrücke

1.53

Schötz

1.62

allows per match

Emmenbrücke

2.40

Schötz

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmenbrücke+0.00on par

Schötz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmenbrücke ↓

Schötz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Emmenbrücke or draw

54%

Emmenbrücke or Schötz

78%

Draw or Schötz

67%

Winning margin

Emmenbrücke wins by 2+

16%

Schötz wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Emmenbrücke 1+ goals

81%

Emmenbrücke 2+ goals

50%

Emmenbrücke 3+ goals

24%

Schötz 1+ goals

87%

Schötz 2+ goals

59%

Schötz 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Emmenbrücke (draw refunded)

42%

Schötz (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmenbrücke at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

Schötz away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.83 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmenbrücke attack 1.53 + Schötz defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Schötz attack 1.62 + Emmenbrücke defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Emmenbrücke scores more

33%

level

22%

Schötz scores more

46%

Schötz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Schötz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff