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Emmenbrücke vs Concordia Basel — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Emmenbrücke
Emmenbrücke
FT
4 – 1
Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
4/5/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Gersag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Emmenbrücke30%
×Draw21%
Concordia Basel50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmenbrücke
1.65
Concordia Basel
2.17

Concordia Basel creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Emmenbrücke
1.53
Concordia Basel
1.93

allows per match

Emmenbrücke
2.40
Concordia Basel
1.77

finishing

Emmenbrücke+0.00on par
Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmenbrücke ↓

Concordia Basel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Emmenbrücke or draw
50%
Emmenbrücke or Concordia Basel
79%
Draw or Concordia Basel
70%

Winning margin

Emmenbrücke wins by 2+
14%
Concordia Basel wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Emmenbrücke 1+ goals
81%
Emmenbrücke 2+ goals
49%
Emmenbrücke 3+ goals
23%
Concordia Basel 1+ goals
89%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
64%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Emmenbrücke (draw refunded)
37%
Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmenbrücke at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmenbrücke attack 1.53 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + Emmenbrücke defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Emmenbrücke scores more
30%
level
21%
Concordia Basel scores more
50%

Concordia Basel at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emmenbrücke vs Concordia Basel

Emmenbrücke beat Concordia Basel 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gersag in Emmenbrücke.