Emmenbrücke 2–1 Black Stars: Result & Stats

Emmenbrücke

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Black Stars

10/4/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Gersag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Emmenbrücke32%

×Draw21%

Black Stars47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenbrückeExpected goals in this matchBlack Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.08

Emmenbrücke

1.69

Black Stars

2.08

Black Stars creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

1.53

creates per match

1.77

2.40

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Emmenbrücke

1.53

Black Stars

1.77

allows per match

Emmenbrücke

2.40

Black Stars

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmenbrücke+0.00on par

Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmenbrücke ↓

Black Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Emmenbrücke or draw

53%

Emmenbrücke or Black Stars

79%

Draw or Black Stars

68%

Winning margin

Emmenbrücke wins by 2+

16%

Black Stars wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Emmenbrücke 1+ goals

82%

Emmenbrücke 2+ goals

50%

Emmenbrücke 3+ goals

24%

Black Stars 1+ goals

87%

Black Stars 2+ goals

61%

Black Stars 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Emmenbrücke (draw refunded)

40%

Black Stars (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmenbrücke at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmenbrücke attack 1.53 + Black Stars defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Black Stars attack 1.77 + Emmenbrücke defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Emmenbrücke scores more

32%

level

21%

Black Stars scores more

47%

Black Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff