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Emmen vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
3/20/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 33De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen49%
×Draw24%
VVV Venlo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.75
VVV Venlo
1.25

Emmen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 95 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
VVV Venlo
1.25

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
VVV Venlo
1.69

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
73%
Emmen or VVV Venlo
76%
Draw or VVV Venlo
51%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
27%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
83%
Emmen 2+ goals
52%
Emmen 3+ goals
25%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
71%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
36%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
64%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + VVV Venlo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

VVV Venlo attack 1.25 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Emmen scores more
49%
level
24%
VVV Venlo scores more
27%

Emmen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 2–2 VVV Venlo

Emmen and VVV Venlo drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on March 20, 2026.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.