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Emmen vs MVV — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
MVV
MVV
4/12/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 34De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen54%
×Draw23%
MVV24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.87
MVV
1.16

Emmen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 148 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
MVV
1.07

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
MVV
1.92

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
MVV+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

MVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
76%
Emmen or MVV
77%
Draw or MVV
46%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
31%
MVV wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
85%
Emmen 2+ goals
56%
Emmen 3+ goals
29%
MVV 1+ goals
69%
MVV 2+ goals
32%
MVV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
70%
MVV (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

MVV away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + MVV defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.87

MVV attack 1.07 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Emmen scores more
54%
level
23%
MVV scores more
24%

Emmen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Emmen 1 – 3 MVV

MVV beat Emmen 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.