Emmen 1–2 FC Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Emmen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC Eindhoven

1/19/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 22De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen48%

×Draw24%

FC Eindhoven28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenExpected goals in this matchFC Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.26

Emmen

1.73

FC Eindhoven

1.26

Emmen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 147 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

1.25

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Emmen

1.82

FC Eindhoven

1.27

allows per match

Emmen

1.25

FC Eindhoven

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

FC Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Emmen or draw

72%

Emmen or FC Eindhoven

76%

Draw or FC Eindhoven

52%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+

26%

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals

82%

Emmen 2+ goals

52%

Emmen 3+ goals

25%

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

72%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

36%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)

63%

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Eindhoven attack 1.27 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Emmen scores more

48%

level

24%

FC Eindhoven scores more

28%

Emmen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff