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Emmen vs Cambuur — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cambuur
Cambuur
2/23/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen38%
×Draw24%
Cambuur38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.56
Cambuur
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 110 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
Cambuur
1.89

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
Cambuur
1.30

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
Cambuur+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Cambuur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
62%
Emmen or Cambuur
76%
Draw or Cambuur
62%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
18%
Cambuur wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
79%
Emmen 2+ goals
46%
Emmen 3+ goals
21%
Cambuur 1+ goals
79%
Cambuur 2+ goals
46%
Cambuur 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
50%
Cambuur (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Cambuur away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.30 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + Cambuur defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cambuur attack 1.89 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Emmen scores more
38%
level
24%
Cambuur scores more
38%

Emmen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emmen vs Cambuur

Emmen beat Cambuur 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.