Emmen 0–1 ADO Den Haag: Result & Stats

Emmen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ADO Den Haag

3/7/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 29De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen39%

×Draw24%

ADO Den Haag37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.51

Emmen

1.55

ADO Den Haag

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 95 away

1.82

creates per match

1.77

1.25

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Emmen

1.82

ADO Den Haag

1.77

allows per match

Emmen

1.25

ADO Den Haag

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

ADO Den Haag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Emmen or draw

63%

Emmen or ADO Den Haag

76%

Draw or ADO Den Haag

61%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+

19%

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals

79%

Emmen 2+ goals

46%

Emmen 3+ goals

20%

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

78%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

44%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)

51%

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.55

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Emmen scores more

39%

level

24%

ADO Den Haag scores more

37%

Emmen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff