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Emmen U21 vs Willem II U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Emmen U21
Emmen U21
FT
2 – 2
Willem II U21
Willem II U21
9/10/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 2De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emmen U2121%
×Draw18%
Willem II U2160%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen U21
1.50
Willem II U21
2.58

Willem II U21 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Emmen U21
1.00
Willem II U21
1.46

allows per match

Emmen U21
3.71
Willem II U21
2.00

finishing

Emmen U21+0.00on par
Willem II U21+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen U21 ↓

Willem II U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Emmen U21 or draw
40%
Emmen U21 or Willem II U21
82%
Draw or Willem II U21
79%

Winning margin

Emmen U21 wins by 2+
9%
Willem II U21 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Emmen U21 1+ goals
78%
Emmen U21 2+ goals
44%
Emmen U21 3+ goals
19%
Willem II U21 1+ goals
92%
Willem II U21 2+ goals
72%
Willem II U21 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Emmen U21 (draw refunded)
26%
Willem II U21 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

Willem II U21 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen U21 attack 1.00 + Willem II U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Willem II U21 attack 1.46 + Emmen U21 defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Emmen U21 scores more
21%
level
18%
Willem II U21 scores more
60%

Willem II U21 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Willem II U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Emmen U21 2–2 Willem II U21

Emmen U21 and Willem II U21 drew 2-2 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.