Emmen U21 1–1 Feyenoord U21: Result & Stats

Emmen U21

FT

1 – 1

Feyenoord U21

10/15/2022

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 6De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emmen U2115%

×Draw16%

Feyenoord U2169%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Emmen U21Expected goals in this matchFeyenoord U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.85

Emmen U21

1.29

Feyenoord U21

2.85

Feyenoord U21 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 69 away

1.00

creates per match

1.99

3.71

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Emmen U21

1.00

Feyenoord U21

1.99

allows per match

Emmen U21

3.71

Feyenoord U21

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emmen U21+0.00on par

Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen U21 ↓

Feyenoord U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Emmen U21 or draw

31%

Emmen U21 or Feyenoord U21

84%

Draw or Feyenoord U21

85%

Winning margin

Emmen U21 wins by 2+

6%

Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Emmen U21 1+ goals

72%

Emmen U21 2+ goals

37%

Emmen U21 3+ goals

14%

Feyenoord U21 1+ goals

94%

Feyenoord U21 2+ goals

77%

Feyenoord U21 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Emmen U21 (draw refunded)

18%

Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

Feyenoord U21 away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen U21 attack 1.00 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Feyenoord U21 attack 1.99 + Emmen U21 defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Emmen U21 scores more

15%

level

16%

Feyenoord U21 scores more

69%

Feyenoord U21 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff