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Emmen U21 vs Almere City II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Emmen U21
Emmen U21
FT
1 – 8
Almere City II
Almere City II
12/3/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 14De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emmen U2115%
×Draw16%
Almere City II69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen U21
1.31
Almere City II
2.87

Almere City II creates 119% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

creates per match

Emmen U21
1.00
Almere City II
2.03

allows per match

Emmen U21
3.71
Almere City II
1.62

finishing

Emmen U21+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen U21 ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Emmen U21 or draw
31%
Emmen U21 or Almere City II
84%
Draw or Almere City II
85%

Winning margin

Emmen U21 wins by 2+
6%
Almere City II wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Emmen U21 1+ goals
73%
Emmen U21 2+ goals
38%
Emmen U21 3+ goals
14%
Almere City II 1+ goals
94%
Almere City II 2+ goals
77%
Almere City II 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Emmen U21 (draw refunded)
18%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen U21 attack 1.00 + Almere City II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Almere City II attack 2.03 + Emmen U21 defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Emmen U21 scores more
15%
level
16%
Almere City II scores more
69%

Almere City II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Emmen U21 1–8 Almere City II

Almere City II beat Emmen U21 8-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.