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Emmen U21 vs ADO Den Haag II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Emmen U21
Emmen U21
FT
0 – 1
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
10/1/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 4De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emmen U2123%
×Draw19%
ADO Den Haag II59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen U21
1.55
ADO Den Haag II
2.54

ADO Den Haag II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 55 away

creates per match

Emmen U21
1.00
ADO Den Haag II
1.36

allows per match

Emmen U21
3.71
ADO Den Haag II
2.11

finishing

Emmen U21+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Emmen U21 or draw
41%
Emmen U21 or ADO Den Haag II
81%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
77%

Winning margin

Emmen U21 wins by 2+
10%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Emmen U21 1+ goals
79%
Emmen U21 2+ goals
46%
Emmen U21 3+ goals
20%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
92%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
72%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Emmen U21 (draw refunded)
28%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen U21 attack 1.00 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + Emmen U21 defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Emmen U21 scores more
23%
level
19%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
59%

ADO Den Haag II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emmen U21 vs ADO Den Haag II

ADO Den Haag II beat Emmen U21 1-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.