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Emmelshausen vs Hassia Bingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
CANC
16:30
Hassia Bingen
Hassia Bingen
2/6/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Emmelshausen Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Emmelshausen28%
×Draw23%
Hassia Bingen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmelshausen
1.33
Hassia Bingen
1.80

Hassia Bingen creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Emmelshausen
0.93
Hassia Bingen
1.40

allows per match

Emmelshausen
2.20
Hassia Bingen
1.73

finishing

Emmelshausen+0.00on par
Hassia Bingen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmelshausen ↓

Hassia Bingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Emmelshausen or draw
52%
Emmelshausen or Hassia Bingen
77%
Draw or Hassia Bingen
72%

Winning margin

Emmelshausen wins by 2+
12%
Hassia Bingen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Emmelshausen 1+ goals
74%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
38%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
15%
Hassia Bingen 1+ goals
83%
Hassia Bingen 2+ goals
54%
Hassia Bingen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
37%
Hassia Bingen (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmelshausen at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Hassia Bingen away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmelshausen attack 0.93 + Hassia Bingen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hassia Bingen attack 1.40 + Emmelshausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Emmelshausen scores more
28%
level
23%
Hassia Bingen scores more
48%

Hassia Bingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hassia Bingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Emmelshausen host Hassia Bingen

February 6, 2021: Emmelshausen take on Hassia Bingen in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Emmelshausen host Hassia Bingen at Emmelshausen Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.