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Emmelshausen vs Eisbachtal — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Emmelshausen
Emmelshausen
CANC
16:30
Eisbachtal
Eisbachtal
11/28/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Emmelshausen Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Emmelshausen37%
×Draw22%
Eisbachtal41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmelshausen
1.73
Eisbachtal
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

creates per match

Emmelshausen
0.93
Eisbachtal
1.50

allows per match

Emmelshausen
2.20
Eisbachtal
2.52

finishing

Emmelshausen+0.00on par
Eisbachtal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmelshausen ↓

Eisbachtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Emmelshausen or draw
59%
Emmelshausen or Eisbachtal
78%
Draw or Eisbachtal
63%

Winning margin

Emmelshausen wins by 2+
19%
Eisbachtal wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Emmelshausen 1+ goals
82%
Emmelshausen 2+ goals
52%
Emmelshausen 3+ goals
25%
Eisbachtal 1+ goals
84%
Eisbachtal 2+ goals
55%
Eisbachtal 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Emmelshausen (draw refunded)
47%
Eisbachtal (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmelshausen at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Eisbachtal away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmelshausen attack 0.93 + Eisbachtal defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.73

Eisbachtal attack 1.50 + Emmelshausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Emmelshausen scores more
37%
level
22%
Eisbachtal scores more
41%

Eisbachtal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eisbachtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Emmelshausen vs Eisbachtal — Match Preview

Emmelshausen face Eisbachtal on November 28, 2020 in this Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Emmelshausen host Eisbachtal at Emmelshausen Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.