Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Singida United vs Polisi Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Singida United
Singida United
FT
0 – 1
Polisi Tanzania
Polisi Tanzania
2/29/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 25Namfua Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Singida United31%
×Draw29%
Polisi Tanzania41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida United
1.01
Polisi Tanzania
1.21

Polisi Tanzania creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Singida United
0.68
Polisi Tanzania
0.84

allows per match

Singida United
1.58
Polisi Tanzania
1.34

finishing

Singida United+0.00on par
Polisi Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida United ↓

Polisi Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Singida United or draw
59%
Singida United or Polisi Tanzania
71%
Draw or Polisi Tanzania
69%

Winning margin

Singida United wins by 2+
11%
Polisi Tanzania wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Singida United 1+ goals
64%
Singida United 2+ goals
27%
Singida United 3+ goals
8%
Polisi Tanzania 1+ goals
70%
Polisi Tanzania 2+ goals
34%
Polisi Tanzania 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Singida United (draw refunded)
43%
Polisi Tanzania (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida United at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Polisi Tanzania away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida United attack 0.68 + Polisi Tanzania defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Polisi Tanzania attack 0.84 + Singida United defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Singida United scores more
31%
level
29%
Polisi Tanzania scores more
41%

Polisi Tanzania at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polisi Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ligi kuu Bara: Singida United 0–1 Polisi Tanzania

Polisi Tanzania beat Singida United 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Namfua Football Ground in Singida.