JKT Tanzania 0–1 Lipuli: Result & Stats

JKT Tanzania

FT

0 – 1

Lipuli

9/14/2019

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 2Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

JKT Tanzania51%

×Draw29%

Lipuli21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JKT TanzaniaExpected goals in this matchLipuli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.72

JKT Tanzania

1.31

Lipuli

0.72

JKT Tanzania creates 82% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

0.88

creates per match

0.63

0.81

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

JKT Tanzania

0.88

Lipuli

0.63

allows per match

JKT Tanzania

0.81

Lipuli

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Lipuli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Lipuli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw

79%

JKT Tanzania or Lipuli

71%

Draw or Lipuli

49%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

24%

Lipuli wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

73%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

38%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

14%

Lipuli 1+ goals

51%

Lipuli 2+ goals

16%

Lipuli 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

71%

Lipuli (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.81 · 81 matches

Lipuli away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.88 + Lipuli defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lipuli attack 0.63 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more

51%

level

29%

Lipuli scores more

21%

JKT Tanzania at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.