Emelec 0–1 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universidad Catolica

W. Chalá 73'

5/21/2022

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 14Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Emelec42%

×Draw27%

Universidad Catolica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.12

Emelec

1.36

Universidad Catolica

1.12

Emelec creates 21% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 133 away

1.47

creates per match

1.42

0.82

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Emelec

1.47

Universidad Catolica

1.42

allows per match

Emelec

0.82

Universidad Catolica

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

69%

Emelec or Universidad Catolica

73%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

58%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

20%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

74%

Emelec 2+ goals

39%

Emelec 3+ goals

16%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

67%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

31%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

58%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Emelec scores more

42%

level

27%

Universidad Catolica scores more

31%

Emelec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

46'

46'

65'

66'

B. Carabalí← J. Cevallos

66'

A. Zapata← D. Vera

73'

W. Chalá↳ L. Alzugaray

76'

Joel Quintero

77'

R. Garcés← S. Rodríguez

78'

A. Cabeza← J. Chalá

79'

Á. Gracia← J. Rodríguez

84'

J. Carabalí← W. Cevallos

88'

Gregori Anangonó

89'

Ángel Gracia

90'

A. Rodríguez← W. Chalá

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EmelecUniversidad

Overview

53%Possession47%

3Total Shots4

8Corners3

9Fouls2

Shots

3Total Shots4

2On Target2

1Off Target2

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls2

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0