Emelec 3–1 Mushuc Runa SC: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mushuc Runa SC

J. Cevallos 79'

J. Ayoví 47', 3'

J. Evans 45+4'

9/23/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 7Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Emelec55%

×Draw25%

Mushuc Runa SC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.89

Emelec

1.65

Mushuc Runa SC

0.89

Emelec creates 85% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 117 away

1.47

creates per match

0.95

0.82

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Emelec

1.47

Mushuc Runa SC

0.95

allows per match

Emelec

0.82

Mushuc Runa SC

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

80%

Emelec or Mushuc Runa SC

75%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

45%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

30%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

81%

Emelec 2+ goals

49%

Emelec 3+ goals

23%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

59%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

22%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

73%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 132 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Emelec defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Emelec scores more

55%

level

25%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

20%

Emelec at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Ayoví

Emelec · F

9.0

Match Events

3'

J. Ayoví↳ J. Sánchez

23'

Diego Ledesma

26'

E. Lastre← J. Sánchez

30'

José Cevallos

45+4'

J. Evans

46'

M. Bolaños← E. Lastre

47'

J. Ayoví↳ M. Bolaños

55'

Cristhian ValenciaCard upgrade

57'

Cristhian Valencia

60'

Jaime Ayoví

60'

J. Espinoza← S. Sosa

65'

J. Quintero← D. Bagüí

66'

Bruno Téliz

68'

F. Rivero← J. Evans

69'

J. Borja← J. Estacio

79'

J. Cevallos↳ M. Bolaños

81'

Marco Montaño

84'

L. Villagra← F. Carabalí

84'

K. Osorio← B. Téliz

90+2'

Miller Bolaños

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecMushuc

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots13

3Corners5

12Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots13

5On Target5

7Off Target5

1Blocked3

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

295Total Passes290

233Accurate Passes235

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls19

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

1Offsides0