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Emelec vs LDU Portoviejo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
2 – 0
LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
1/31/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Emelec66%
×Draw24%
LDU Portoviejo10%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.60
LDU Portoviejo
0.46

Emelec creates 248% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.20
LDU Portoviejo
0.33

allows per match

Emelec
0.60
LDU Portoviejo
2.00

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

LDU Portoviejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
90%
Emelec or LDU Portoviejo
76%
Draw or LDU Portoviejo
34%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
37%
LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
80%
Emelec 2+ goals
47%
Emelec 3+ goals
22%
LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
37%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
8%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
86%
LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.20 + LDU Portoviejo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

LDU Portoviejo attack 0.33 + Emelec defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Emelec scores more
66%
level
24%
LDU Portoviejo scores more
10%

Emelec at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emelec vs LDU Portoviejo

Emelec beat LDU Portoviejo 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2020.