Emelec 7–0 Independiente Petrolero: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Independiente Petrolero

S. Rodríguez 77', 38'

M. Quiroga 75'

J. Rojas 54'

J. Cevallos 45+1'

A. Cabeza 35', 16'

5/25/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Emelec90%

×Draw7%

Independiente Petrolero3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.88

0.67

Emelec

3.88

Independiente Petrolero

0.67

Emelec creates 479% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

6.00

creates per match

Emelec

1.75

Independiente Petrolero

0.33

allows per match

Emelec

1.00

Independiente Petrolero

6.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–17%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

97%

Emelec or Independiente Petrolero

93%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

10%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

76%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

98%

Emelec 2+ goals

89%

Emelec 3+ goals

72%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

49%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

15%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

97%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.75 + Independiente Petrolero defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.88

Independiente Petrolero attack 0.33 + Emelec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Emelec scores more

90%

level

7%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

3%

Emelec at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Rodríguez

Emelec · M

9.9

Match Events

16'

A. Cabeza

35'

A. Cabeza

38'

S. Rodríguez↳ D. Arroyo

45+3'

B. Carabali

45+1'

J. Cevallos↳ E. Guevara

46'

L. Alí← Y. Martínez

46'

J. Rioja← D. Giménez

46'

A. Arancibia← H. Ayala

49'

D. Arroyo

54'

J. Rojas↳ A. Zapata

67'

A. Cabeza

67'

R. Caicedo← A. Zapata

73'

M. Quiroga← A. Cabeza

73'

R. Garcés← J. Cevallos

75'

M. Quiroga↳ B. Carabalí

77'

S. Rodríguez↳ J. Rojas

80'

R. Vargas← M. Avilés

81'

J. Chalá← S. Rodríguez

81'

B. Wittle← J. Rojas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecIndependiente

Overview

68%Possession32%

29Total Shots14

7Corners6

13Fouls6

Shots

29Total Shots14

12On Target4

11Off Target6

6Blocked4

23Inside Box7

6Outside Box7

Passing

68%Possession32%

515Total Passes242

427Accurate Passes149

83%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3